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Breaking into the planet's most popular art institution in broad daylight, grabbing eight pieces of priceless Napoleonic jewellery and disappearing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for international notoriety and ensuing Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who study patterns in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s robbery at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the most recent in a series of quick-hit thefts centered more on the material value of precious stones or metals than the historical importance, perpetuating a trend that has emerged over the last ten years in Germany, the UK and the US. The location, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“You may ask why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are breaking into a world-famous museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “The answer is simple: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is more secure.”

A series of aggressive jewellery shop thefts mean that many stores have beefed up their protection in recent years, with armed guards on their locations and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Museums, meanwhile, look more exposed, in part because of the inherent factor of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and partly the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, authorities across the world have reduced spending on law enforcement and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – including jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the tiara of Empress Eugénie featuring thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive diadem once owned by a royal that the robbers left by the roadside on their way out – has inevitably been compared with the historical theft of the famous painting from the same museum, carried out by the Italian handyman the thief.

Better comparisons may be the 2019 burglary of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the theft of a multi-million pound gold toilet from Blenheim Palace the that year, the 2017 heist of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of robberies of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as quickly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to stay whole, experts say, the thieves would struggle to sell them. “It's impossible to sell something as immediately identifiable as the Louvre’s jewels on the licit market”, said an art crime researcher of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They would be immediately recognised, especially given the Ministry of Culture has published photos of the pieces. Even a individual buyer or an sales venue would want to see paperwork confirming legal possession before handling such striking pieces.”

In the past, museums were often hesitant to go public about the disappearance of famous art pieces and would stay silent out of embarrassment. Now, as cultural robberies are more widely publicised, the keeping and selling of stolen art is risky business for any lawbreaker.

“Taking a famous painting, it has to stay complete or it becomes valueless, and you have to devise a plan to conceal it, perhaps by moving it among dangerous individuals,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an partner telling the police to cash in a reward.”

For comparable factors, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the theft had been commissioned. “Commissioned theft is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You can't display it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Altering taken items by dismantling or re-cutting does reduce the worth. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with significant danger because modern cutting techniques give stones a bigger and lighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or reduce value for a concealment.

Crucially, however, dismantling or reshaping eliminates the proof of the theft. “I suspect that the Louvre thieves will try to take the items to locations with gem knowledge like a country, India or even as nearby as Antwerp, and find someone to cut out the gems,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the museum, with a unauthorized state auditor report expected to be released next month pointing out “considerable” and “persistent” delays in modernizing equipment and observing that security cameras were missing in many rooms. But security experts say showing valuable objects in older structures with a steady stream of visitors comes with dangers that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Historic buildings are more difficult to protect,” explained an art crime professor. “They often have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for criminals to get away, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The best security systems for buildings should be conceptualised “like a fortress”, noted a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to repel intruders.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with advanced surveillance systems or integrated seismic detectors that raise alarm about a smashed window in real time, but historic institutions may be hesitant to uglify their appearance. Laser scanners can be difficult to install to decorated surfaces. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as crowds stomp through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between morning hours in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. Frequently when security rotate and prior to the museum is crowded who effectively act as extra protection.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new devices that can raise the alarm more rapidly and efficiently, but it has also given robbers new methods with which to circumvent protections. In the city, the robbers accessed the museum’s upper level with a mobile equipment and cut through a window with a electric tool.

Elaine Sciolino said the conversation in France about the historic building had primarily focused on visitor management in recent years, and less on security.

The museum has an in-house team of about 50 permanent firefighters, but their purpose is mainly to safeguard the artworks from fires and flooding. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the safety of the Louvre all depends on government support and money, and at present the nation simply has no money.”