A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
